FFHMPR Demographics Subcommittee Meeting Notes October 8, 2010 Agenda
Review and share observations about the following documents
o Newtown Population Projections 2000-2030, H.C. Planning Consultants, Inc.
o Newtown Buildout Analysis & Population Projections, Planimetrics, H.C. Planning Consultants, Inc.
o Newtown School Enrollment Dynamics & Projections 2010-2019, H.C. Planning Consultants, Inc.
o Newtown, Connecticut, CERC Town Profile
Our current position based on reviews and discussion of documents listed above
For understanding the representation of town population re: surveys and other types of community input, the CERC information augmented with current socio-economic information (see Next Steps) is recommended.
For the estimate of future population, we believe that the Planimetrics document provides a reasonable set of assumptions for us to proceed with.
o Revised Method:
ce="Calibri" size="+0" color="#000000" style="font-family:Calibri;font-size:8pt;color:#000000;">Understand pressures on populations based on social trends. This would be a non-numerical discussion and is intended to provide a sense of how much confidence we may have on whether the population numbers are reasonable for use.
o Our POV regarding the two population projections: The two highly different views provided in the documents highlight the fact that the underlying models are extremely sensitive to recent historic trends. The first, Population Projections for 2000-2030 essentially view the future through the lens of the tail end of a time period rife with housing speculation. The School Age Population projections extend the economic realities seen during an unprecedented recession through 2020. Both population studies show example routes to eventual build-out. In our opinions, the actual route to build-out is not pertinent to the work of the committee.
o Risk Factors:
-size:8pt;color:#000000;">to maximize the utility of their retirement funds. This will cause an upward pressure on persons per household.
bers and assumptions listed above to provide estimates on population growth for use in conversations by sub-committees, including school and recreational needs, and others as needed.
Determine other types of demographics, e.g., unemployment rate and income levels, that will help ensure that survey results can be understood re: community representation. Note that many of these may be available via CERC.
Next meeting: Friday, October 15, 2010 at 8AM. Room TBD.
Expected completion date: End of October.
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